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New rule changes in soccer are speeding up play, but one of them may be working too well
tomorrow’s refereeing controversy today, only in Expecting Goals
Oct 21
•
Michael Caley
14
1
4
What is a point worth? Understanding the early season table and what it means for Arsenal and Manchester City
the table is telling the truth in some specific and important ways
Oct 7
•
Michael Caley
5
The "Bundesliga Tax": Why transfers from outside the Premier League have flopped, and why that does not mean Premier League teams should…
contexts, contexts, contexts
Aug 7
•
Michael Caley
17
Who Made the First Meat Wall? The Origins of the Set Piece Revolution
Finally answering the question, whose fault is it?
Apr 1
•
Michael Caley
22
2
Long Throws and Meat Walls: The Set Piece Revolution in the Premier League
The game is changing in the English Premier League.
Jan 28
•
Michael Caley
67
11
What Happens When Teams Have "Nothing to Play For"
Using analytics to determine who wants it more
Dec 1, 2025
•
Michael Caley
8
2
Expecting Goals Premier League Team Ratings
A new method for evaluating soccer teams in the major European Leagues, and an opportunity to discover whether I am biased against your favorite team or…
Oct 28, 2025
•
Michael Caley
19
1
3
Building Marcel, Part III: Contexts and Confounders
Using positional data and modeling to suggest the next steps forward and what may have been missed in the previous newsletters.
Sep 30, 2025
•
Michael Caley
4
1
Building Marcel, Part II: Age Curves
In which we begin to grapple with the final boss of soccer analytics, context adjustments.
Aug 7, 2025
•
Michael Caley
15
2
3
Substitutes, Part II: Clubs, Leagues and Managers
or, England hates subs
Feb 8, 2024
•
Michael Caley
8
4
3
Substitute Effects Study: Part I
and away we go
Jan 18, 2024
•
Michael Caley
15
2
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