Predicting Set Piece Goals and Assists, a Mini-Study

Also: Expecting Goals in the News!

Feb 5 • Michael Caley

7

1

January 2026

The Set Piece Revolution

The game is changing in the English Premier League.

Jan 28 • Michael Caley

57

11

December 2025

Holiday Power Rankings

How do things look around the midpoint of the European football season?

Dec 24, 2025 • Michael Caley

7

Expecting Goals Power Rankings

Let's see how things are going in Europe

Dec 5, 2025 • Michael Caley

8

3

The Political Geography of New York City

A Story in 14 or 15 Clusters

Dec 4, 2025 • Michael Caley

7

1

How Zohran Mamdani Won, and What the 2025 Election in New York Can Teach Us About the National Political Environment

More than you think, but not in the way you’re thinking.

Dec 4, 2025 • Michael Caley

16

3

What Happens When Teams Have "Nothing to Play For"

Using analytics to determine who wants it more

Dec 1, 2025 • Michael Caley

5

2

October 2025

Team Ratings and Power Rankings for European Soccer

To the continent!

Oct 31, 2025 • Michael Caley

10

3

Expecting Goals Premier League Team Ratings

A new method for evaluating soccer teams in the major European Leagues, and an opportunity to discover whether I am biased against your favorite team or…

Oct 28, 2025 • Michael Caley

18

1

3

September 2025

Building Marcel, Part III: Contexts and Confounders

Using positional data and modeling to suggest the next steps forward and what may have been missed in the previous newsletters.

Sep 30, 2025 • Michael Caley

4

1

August 2025

Building Marcel, Part II: Age Curves

In which we begin to grapple with the final boss of soccer analytics, context adjustments.

Aug 7, 2025 • Michael Caley

15

2

3

February 2025

Further Thoughts on the Business of Football

Last week I published an essay in the Bloomberg Odd Lots newsletter about financialization and football, co-authored by my podcast co-host Mike Goodman.

Feb 7, 2025 • Michael Caley

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