World Cup 2026 PADDLIN' Projections
This newsletter's job is tables.
The full, live and updating PADDLIN’ projections pages are here. For every match you can find odds and projected scores. For every group there are xPts and qualification odds. Search around and you can find the likelihood of reaching the knockouts based on points and goal difference, the teams with the easiest and most difficult paths to the quarterfinals, the full PADDLIN’ team ratings system, and links to discussions of these topics.1
The page will update after every match, and the tables have an “Updated at” time-stamp to confirm.
The PADDLIN’ system incorporates both results and statistical measures of underlying performance, including expected goals, for all international teams. It also uses estimates of player value from Transfermarkt to adjust these measures based on the projected quality of the team’s World Cup squad.
To read about these projections and methodology in more depth, check out the full pre-tournament newsletter:
You can also watch the three-part Double Pivot podcast YouTube series on how to build a World Cup statistical model.2
I am also blogging the World Cup, with new studies in football analytics every day or two: Expecting Goals World Cup blogs.
On the main page just below, you can find team-by-team odds of winning the tournament and reaching the various knockout rounds, recent match results and upcoming projections, and how the model’s projections have changed since the beginning of the tournament. And on all the sub-pages (linked below) there is much, much more.
Who’s Going to Win the World Cup (Probably)?
The new PADDLIN’ bracket, the latest updates to the full projection model, odds for the knockouts, winning it all, and everything in between.
For further details on every team’s potential path to winning it all and their most likely opponents along the way, see:
For the underlying Team Ratings these productions build from, see:
For even more projections, including the likely knockout fixtures, how the different confederations’ results compare, what points totals and GD can secure qualification to the knockouts and which teams may draw the easiest and most difficult paths to the quarterfinals, see:
Recent and Upcoming Matches
Recently completed matches with actual and projected results, as well as PADDLIN’ adjusted xG, and upcoming matches with projected results and goals.
One note on “Adjusted xG”: This is not an xG that is attempting to measure only the likelihood of scoring every individual chance, and it is likely not to align precisely with published xG. This is an xG designed instead for predicting future performance. In particular the adjustments to Adj. xG regress the value of big chances and take into account favorite/underdog status and game state. For more on Adjusted xG, see:
For projections and adjusted xG for every match, see:
For an analysis of how every team at this World Cup has played, based on their underlying Adjusted xG, see:
World Cup Team Performance Index: Who’s Played the Best?
How the Projections Have Changed
A graph of World Cup winner over time, and tables showing the teams whose odds of making the Round of 16 have increased or decreased the most based on their results, the performances, and the way the draw stacks up.
This table shows the odds of winning the World Cup for the current favorites, with change over time for every match at the tournament.
This table shows the teams whose odds of making the quarterfinals have changed the most from the start of the tournament.
For more statistics on which teams have improved their odds the most, whether in the groups or for making the semifinals or winning it all, see:
Navigation
This is the base page for the PADDLIN’ World Cup projections, but there’s so much more! For even more in-depth tables and data check out:
World Cup Fixtures and Results (including Projections and xG)
Detailed Knockout Paths, Path Difficulty, and Likely Matches by Venue
World Cup Risers and Fallers: Who Has Improved Their Odds the Most?
Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals
Data from Opta and Transfermarkt.
PADDLIN’: Probabilistic Archetype, Dominance-Driven, Linking Interrelated National (Teams). The apostrophe in PADDLIN’ cuts off “Teams”.
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