World Cup Fixtures and Results: All Projections
Every match, what the model thinks, what it thought, how it did.
Navigation
Detailed Knockout Paths by Team and Knockout Match Projections by Venue
World Cup Risers and Fallers: Who Has Improved Their Odds the Most?
Even More Projections (Confederation Comparison, Likely Knockout Opponents, and More)
Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals
Fixtures
Results
One note on “Adjusted xG”: This is not an xG that is attempting to measure only the likelihood of scoring every individual chance, and it is likely not to align precisely with published xG. This is an xG designed instead for predicting future performance. In particular the adjustments to Adj. xG regress the value of big chances and take into account favorite/underdog status and game state. For more on Adjusted xG, see:
Navigation
Detailed Knockout Paths by Team and Knockout Match Projections by Venue
World Cup Risers and Fallers: Who Has Improved Their Odds the Most?
Even More Projections (Confederation Comparison, Likely Knockout Opponents, and More)
Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals
Data from Opta and Transfermarkt.