Detailed Knockout Paths and Projections by Venue
Who's going to play whom and where?
Navigation
World Cup Fixtures and Results (including Projections and xG)
World Cup Risers and Fallers: Who Has Improved Their Odds the Most?
Even More Projections (Confederation Comparison, Likely Knockout Opponents, and More)
Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals
Detailed Paths to the Quarterfinals
Projections for which knockout opponents are most likely for every team with a projected chance of reaching the quarterfinals over 25 percent. Top four most likely individual opponents for each match.
Note that the percentages here are the percentage chance assuming the team makes that round. Canada has only a 29 percent chance of making the quarterfinals, but they are 40 percent to face Argentina in the quarterfinals. That means that 40 percent of the time, if Canada makes the quarters, they will face Argentina.
Likely Matches by Fixture and Venue
The most likely matches to be played in each scheduled knockout fixture, for the round of 32, the round of 16, and the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinals matchups still remain heavily a function of the randomness in early knockout matches. The most likely single quarterfinals matchup, Spain vs USA in Inglewood, is still only a 24 percent probability.