World Cup 2026 PADDLIN' Projections
This page's job is tables.
This is the live page for 2026 World Cup projections from the Expecting Goals / Double Pivot PADDLIN’ projection system.1 The page will update daily, or, when possible, even more often that that.
The PADDLIN’ system incorporates both results and statistical measures of underlying performance, including expected goals, for all international teams. It also uses estimates of player value from Transfermarkt to adjust these measures based on the projected quality of the team’s World Cup squad.
To read about these projections and methodology in more depth, check out the full pre-tournament newsletter:
You can also watch the three-part Double Pivot podcast YouTube series on how to build a World Cup statistical model.2
Navigation
This is the base page for the PADDLIN’ World Cup projections with odds for who’s going to win it all and much more.
But that’s not all! For even more in-depth tables and data check out:
World Cup Groups Projections (A–F)
World Cup Groups Projections (G–L)
PADDLIN’ Team Ratings
Even More Projections (Path Difficulty and Knockouts Threshholds)
The Groups pages display current standings and xPts based on PADDLIN’ adjsted expected goals, as well as projections of likely team finishes in the group.
The Team Ratings page shows the neutral field relative strength of all the teams in the World Cup, based on the underlying PADDLIN’ team rating system.
On the Even More Projections page, you can find “Path Difficulty”, which estimates whether teams are likely to have easier or more difficult opponents in the Round of 32 and the Round of 16 based on their current trajectories. The page further has “Knockouts Threshholds”, the likelihood of making the knockouts based on final points and goal difference. That is, “if my team ends up with 3 points and a negative-2 goal difference, how likely is it they qualify for the knockouts?”
On the main page just below, you can find team-by-team odds of winning the tournament and reaching the various knockout rounds, recent match results and upcoming projections, and how the model’s projections have changed since the beginning of the tournament.
Who’s Going to Win the World Cup (Probably)?
The latest updates to the full projection model, odds for all 48 teams of making the knockouts, winning it all, and everything in between.
Recent and Upcoming Matches
Recently completed matches with actual and projected results, as well as PADDLIN’ adjusted xG, and upcoming matches with projected results and goals.
How the Projections Have Changed
A graph of World Cup winner over time, and tables showing the teams whose odds of making the Round of 16 have increased or decreased the most based on their results, the performances, and the way the draw stacks up.
This table shows the odds of winning the World Cup for the current favorites, with change over time for every match at the tournament.
This table shows the teams whose odds of winning the tournament have risen or fallen the most in the latest round of matches.
This table shows the teams whose odds of making the Round of 16 have changed the most from the start of the tournament.
Data from Opta and Transfermarkt.
PADDLIN’: Probabilistic Archetype, Dominance-Driven, Linking Interrelated National (Teams). The apostrophe in PADDLIN’ cuts off “Teams”.
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