Even More World Cup Projections
Path Difficulty and Knockout Threshholds
I am biased but I think this is the coolest one of the Projections pages.
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Groups A–F Projections
Groups G–L Projections
PADDLIN’ Team Ratings
Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals
Likely Threshholds for Knockouts Qualification
Based on the results of 100,000 simulations, the likelihood that a certain combination of points and goal difference will qualify a team for the World Cup knockout rounds.
For example, this shows that teams which end on 3 points with negative-2 goal difference reach the knockouts 64 percent of the time, but there is a 15 percent chance that their qualification is determined by a tie-breaker like goals scored or even fair play.
Path Difficulty
Every team’s most likely opponents in the first two knockout rounds, and an estimate of how difficult their path to the quarterfinals will be compared to an average team’s path with the same seed.
Data from Opta and Transfermarkt.