PADDLIN' Team Ratings

How good are all these teams?

Navigation

• Main World Cup Projections Page

• World Cup Fixtures and Results (with Projections and xG)

• Projections and xPts for Groups A–F

• Projections and xPts for Groups G–L

• Even More Projections (Path Difficulty and Knockout Thresholds)

• Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals

• How to Build a World Cup Projection Model: Double Pivot Podcast (YouTube), Three-Part Series on PADDLIN’

PADDLIN’ Team Ratings

The neutral-pitch projected quality of all 48 World Cup teams based on the three different team quality measures underlying PADDLIN’. Ratings shown as the average points per match the team would be projected to win across a full round robin tournament in which all 48 teams played each other once.

• “Results” refers to a model based only on team results (win/draw/loss), goal difference and opposition quality.

• “xG” refers to a model that incorporates adjusted expected goals into the “Results” model for matches where xG is available.

• “+ Squad Value” refers to a model that incorporates estimates of squad value from Transfermarkt.com into the “xG” model.

• For more on how these ratings were constructed, read the Expecting Goals newsletter on PADDLIN’.

Team Attack and Defense Ratings

The team ratings split into attack and defense scores.

• “Att” shows how many goals the team would be projected to score against the average World Cup opponent on a neutral field.

• “Def” likewise shows how many goals the team would be projected to concede against average World Cup opposition.

• “Tilt” represents the team’s tendency to play a more attacking or defensive style, relative to the rest of the World Cup field. Positive means more attacking, negative means more defensive. (I ripped this idea off wholesale from Nate Silver’s PELE model.)

Team Ratings Risers and Fallers

The teams whose underlying xElo Rating has increased or decreased the most based on their results and performances in this tournament.

These Risers and Fallers are different from those on the main page because this is focused only on changes in Team Rating not on their projections.

Note that xElo does not take into account squad value. It is the basis of the “xG” column in the first Ratings table above. So the rankings here do not take into account the squad value aspect of the model, which plays a significant role in match projections.

Navigation

• Main World Cup Projections Page

• World Cup Fixtures and Results (with Projections and xG)

• Projections and xPts for Groups A–F

• Projections and xPts for Groups G–L

• Even More Projections (Path Difficulty and Knockout Threshholds)

• Introducing PADDLIN’: Newsletter on Modeling and Methodology from Expecting Goals

• How to Build a World Cup Projection Model: Double Pivot Podcast (YouTube), Three-Part Series on PADDLIN’

Data from Opta and Transfermarkt.