World Cup Update July 4: Cabo Verde by the Numbers
a great story that actually stands up to analytical scrutiny
It was a match that more or less no one—certainly not me, and certainly not the PADDLIN’ model—expected to be terribly competitive. It turned out to be the first stone-cold classic World Cup knockout match this tournament has delivered. Cabo Verde took defending champions Argentina to extra time and, even after falling behind early in the extra period, found another equalizer and pushed the Albiceleste to the brink of a shootout.
In the adjusted xG, the result reads like a fluke. Argentina ultimately attempted 22 shots, the large majority of them inside the penalty area and 6 within 12 yards of goal, rated at over 2 xG. None of Cabo Verde’s 16 shots came from such close range, and they ended up with about 0.5 xG.
But this is not going to be a newsletter about how, actually, the dramatic match that everyone loved was a fluke of finishing. To a meaningful degree, of course, it was. Cabo Verde’s extra time equalizer was one of the greatest shots in World Cup history, and everyone watching knew they had seen a truly special finish, one that commentator Stu Holden noted was probably the greatest Sidny Lopes Cabral has ever managed to pull off in his life.
But in analytics terms, it is not exactly news that Cabo Verde needed a bit of magic to push Argentina to the brink. What is far more impressive is that the Tubarões Azuis had made it to that point, and that they were by no means played off the pitch by Argentina. As noted in an earlier Expecting Goals World Cup blog, a deeper analysis of the event data and the adjusted xG methodology show that Cabo Verde played Uruguay close to even and did not require much in the way of good fortune to pull off that draw. And in the final group match against Saudi Arabia, needing a draw to reach the World Cup knockouts for the first time in their nation’s history, Cabo Verde did not sit back and play for the point but took the game to the Saudis. By xG, adjusted xG and field tilt, the match was Cabo Verde’s to win, and for once they could not make one of their many good scoring chances count.
One scoreline can always be a fluke. The PADDLIN’ model is built on that suspicion, and it actually docked Cabo Verde rating points for the famous draw with Spain even as the rest of the world celebrated it. But I found that if I take all the underlying data seriously in the aggregate, even the numbers that call into question most of the praise for Cabo Verde’s opening draw, what appears is a story much larger than a single result. When a team keeps passing every test that international competition provides—at the level of the players, the program, and the tournament—the flukes stop being the story.
This is true first within the arc of the 2026 World Cup, and as I will argue, also over the past several years. In this World Cup, Cabo Verde played an unusually difficult schedule and managed to avoid being completely dominated by two of the best teams in the world and went at least toe-to-toe with their other opponents. By PADDLIN’ expected points relative to schedule difficulty, Cabo Verde’s numbers at this tournament are competitive with Croatia, Belgium and Egypt.
This chart throws into relief the larger reason why Cabo Verde’s run has captured the world’s attention. This is a tiny archipelago nation of about 530,000 people, with a diaspora population, primarily in the United States and Portugal, only slightly larger than that. The Saudi Arabia team they were unfortunate not to dispatch draws its players from a population nearly 70 times larger—still roughly 30 times larger even if you credit Cabo Verde its entire diaspora.
To understand the incredible nature of this run requires consideration of several different points: how much football talent Cabo Verde has produced for a nation of its size and wealth, how how far the team punched above that talent for years, and how this World Cup exceeded even what that record promised. This is a story of player development, as well as recruitment from the diaspora, a story of tactics and player relationships leading to improved play and a testament to the work of team manager Bubista, and finally a story of how it all came together on the biggest stage.
Three Levels of the Cabo Verde Miracle
It was a match that more or less no one—certainly not me, and certainly not the PADDLIN’ model—expected to be terribly competitive. It turned out to be the first stone-cold classic World Cup knockout match this tournament has delivered. Cabo Verde took defending champions Argentina to extra time and, even after falling behind early in the extra period, found another equalizer and pushed the Albiceleste to the brink of a shootout.
In the adjusted xG, the result reads like a fluke. Argentina ultimately attempted 22 shots, the large majority of them inside the penalty area and 6 within 12 yards of goal, rated at over 2 xG. None of Cabo Verde’s 16 shots came from such close range, and they ended up with about 0.5 xG.
But this is not going to be a newsletter about how, actually, the dramatic match that everyone loved was a fluke of finishing. To a meaningful degree, of course, it was. Cabo Verde’s extra time equalizer was one of the greatest shots in World Cup history, and everyone watching knew they had seen a truly special finish, one that commentator Stu Holden noted was probably the greatest Sidny Lopes Cabral has ever managed to pull off in his life.
But in analytics terms, it is not exactly news that Cabo Verde needed a bit of magic to push Argentina to the brink. What is far more impressive is that the Tubarões Azuis had made it to that point, and that they were by no means played off the pitch by Argentina. As noted in an earlier Expecting Goals World Cup blog, a deeper analysis of the event data and the adjusted xG methodology show that Cabo Verde played Uruguay close to even and did not require much in the way of good fortune to pull off that draw. And in the final group match against Saudi Arabia, needing a draw to reach the World Cup knockouts for the first time in their nation’s history, Cabo Verde did not sit back and play for the point but took the game to the Saudis. By xG, adjusted xG and field tilt, the match was Cabo Verde’s to win, and for once they could not make one of their many good scoring chances count.
One scoreline can always be a fluke. The PADDLIN’ model is built on that suspicion, and it actually docked Cabo Verde rating points for the famous draw with Spain even as the rest of the world celebrated it. But I found that if I take all the underlying data seriously in the aggregate, even the numbers that call into question most of the praise for Cabo Verde’s opening draw, what appears is a story much larger than a single result. When a team keeps passing every test that international competition provides—at the level of the players, the program, and the tournament—the flukes stop being the story.
This is true first within the arc of the 2026 World Cup, and as I will argue, also over the past several years. In this World Cup, Cabo Verde played an unusually difficult schedule and managed to avoid being completely dominated by two of the best teams in the world and went at least toe-to-toe with their other opponents. By PADDLIN’ expected points relative to schedule difficulty, Cabo Verde’s numbers at this tournament are competitive with Croatia, Belgium and Egypt.
This chart throws into relief the larger reason why Cabo Verde’s run has captured the world’s attention. This is a tiny archipelago nation of about 530,000 people, with a diaspora population, primarily in the United States and Portugal, only slightly larger than that. The Saudi Arabia team they were unfortunate not to dispatch draws its players from a population nearly 70 times larger—still roughly 30 times larger even if you credit Cabo Verde its entire diaspora.
To understand the incredible nature of this run requires consideration of several different points: how much football talent Cabo Verde has produced for a nation of its size and wealth, how how far the team punched above that talent for years, and how this World Cup exceeded even what that record promised. This is a story of player development, as well as recruitment from the diaspora, a story of tactics and player relationships leading to improved play and a testament to the work of team manager Bubista, and finally a story of how it all came together on the biggest stage.
Three Levels of the Cabo Verde Miracle
More than anything else, World Cup teams live and die on the quality of their players. This is not determinative of results, of course, but it has been clear throughout Cabo Verde’s matches that their players can compete with some of the best in the world. While only one member of the Tubarões Azuis plays in the top division of one of Europe’s big five leagues (Logan Costa at Villarreal), several play in the Turkish Süper Lig, the Portuguese Primeira Liga and other top leagues in Eastern Europe. For a tiny nation, this is a wealth of talent. As measured by Transfermarkt, the top 15 Cabo Verde players have a transfer value of about 51 million euros. Other national teams in this range are generally from much larger or much wealthier countries.
Further, these player value ratings have moved over recent years. At the beginning of AFCON 2023, where Cabo Verde also made a dramatic and historic run to the knockouts, the transfer value of these players was estimated at around 25 million euros. Their performances as a national team, and the individual players’ development for their club teams, have lifted these value estimates.
It is striking that some of the top names here may be unfamiliar to World Cup viewers. Obviously no one will forget goal-scorer Lopes Cabral, who just moved from Benfica to Trabzonspor for a reported 10 million euros fee (well above his estimated Transfermarkt value). But Villarreal center back Logan Costa and Trabzonspor fullback Wagner Pina combined to play only 90 minutes at this tournament, as Bubista preferred veterans Steven Moreira, Roberto Lopes, and Diney Borges in his back line against Argentina. These numbers suggest that Cabo Verde’s rise may not have peaked. Even as the team phases out many of the starters from this World Cup side, there are pre-peak players with European pedigrees who appear more than ready to take up their positions.
But even accounting for this doubling of estimated player value, the team’s performance under Bubista have been fantastic. The team’s PADDLIN’ xElo has steadily improved, reaching an all-time high of 1686 and finishing the tournament at 60th place in the world.
This is where the story of Bubista comes in. The Cabo Verde coach was more or less entirely unknown outside his home country before he took over the managerial job in 2020, having played a journeyman pro career and then coaching in the Cabo Verde league after his retirement. He led the Tubarões Azuis to back-to-back Africa Cup of Nations qualifications in 2021 and 2023, including that knockout run in 2023, and then through the World Cup qualifying this cycle.
While Cabo Verde’s xElo rating has improved this World Cup, it has moved only 8 points compared to 132 in the years since Bubista’s hiring. What the chart shows, at least by xElo, is a team making steady improvements year to year, picking up consistent results against mid-level African competition, and then capping it off with an impressive World Cup run. It looks like a convincing achievement over years rather than a single-tournament shock that is likely to fade.
This rise is better captured by xElo than by the FIFA rankings for a simple reason. FIFA finally fixed its broken ratings system in 2018, after teams like Wales and Romania had exploited its strange handling of friendlies to shoot much further up the ratings than their performances deserved. Cabo Verde had not been purposely exploiting the ratings, but had merely played limited friendlies due to a lack of federation resources, and had seen the same undeserved benefits in their ratings before 2018. In 2020, the mistakenly high version of the old FIFA rankings was still boosting Cabo Verde beyond their true level and thus masking the team’s achievements under Bubista.
Cabo Verde rate as one of a small set of teams which have most outperformed their estimated squad value at this World Cup, along with Colombia, Morocco, DR Congo and New Zealand.
These are the sorts of international performance that should inspire further consideration from club teams around the world. Are there players here who remain bargain-priced and whose individual games might be effective at a higher level? And perhaps most compellingly, has Bubista demonstrated an ability to craft a tactical system and build a clubhouse atmosphere that get the best out of his players, which could also make a difference for a club team? Cabo Verde may have been eliminated from the World Cup, but it seems likely the story of this team and its miracle run will continue, even into the upcoming club seasons.
When you look at the performances in their totality, the question of whether two famous scorelines flattered them stops mattering. The model that docked Cabo Verde points for the Spain draw now rates this the best team in the nation’s history: an all-time-high rating earned against the hardest schedule they have ever played. Every level of the miracle survives scrutiny. A country of half a million people produced €51 million worth of footballers. A previously unknown coach turned that talent into five years of steady, objective improvement. And when the World Cup came, they put in performances rated just as strong as those of far more famous footalling nations like Croatia, Belgium and Uruguay on the underlying numbers. And with highly-rated players aged 23 to 25 ready to step in, there is no reason to assume that Cabo Verde’s football team have yet peaked.