World Cup Update June 19: Mexico vs England approaches, Africa's Hidden Hot Start and More PADDLIN' Pages
Tell me the odds
With their victory over South Korea in the late match on Thursday, June 18, Mexico have fully clinched first place in Group A. Exactly why they clinched so early is worth noting, as it will likely remain a story to watch through the second round. FIFA changed their tie-breaker rules for this World Cup, making head-to-head record the first tie-breaker in place of goal difference. This means that even if Mexico were to lose to Czechia and South Korea were to defeat South Africa, bringing the two group leaders back level on points, Mexico would still finish first because of their now-locked tie-breaker advantage over South Korea.
Mexico clinching their group, and the head-to-head tie-breaker, also make a big difference for England. The Three Lions’ defeat of Croatia not only put points on the board but also gave England the tie-breaker advantage against the projected second-best team in Group L.
The other connection here is that he winners of Groups A and L will match up in the round of 16 if they both win their round of 32 matches. And the tournament structure was designed to benefit Mexico if they were to win their group, as the first two knockout matches in the path of the Group A winner will both be played at the Azteca in Mexico City. Because of this, PADDLIN’ now gives England a 73 percent chance of facing off against Mexico, in the Azteca, if they reach the round of 16.
England will likely be favored in that match, despite facing both a home field and an altitude disadvantage,1 given the strength of their underlying numbers and in particular their performance against Croatia. In the most recent Double Pivot Podcast, I discussed how these early group results have affected England’s path to the World Cup quarterfinals. This podcast also covered how much our subjective evaluation of England’s level shifted on the basis of this dominant performance.
For further commentary on the World Cup favorites, we also covered Brazil, Spain, Argentina and France, considering what insights could be taken from their early matches.
Could African Teams Be the Story of the Group Stage?
In the other match in Group A, after a pretty lackluster performance on both sides for most of the match, South Africa won a late handball penalty and scored a crucial equalizing goal against Czechia. This kept Bafana Bafana in the frame for advancement to the knockouts. PADDLIN’ still makes them big underdogs to get the win they need over South Korea to claim a place in the round of 32, but the late goal gives South Africa hope.
The South Africa result was indicative of a larger trend. Teams from CAF, the African confederation, have punched above their weight in this World Cup, in ways that only become clear after some deeper digging into the numbers.
