<![CDATA[Expecting Goals: Double Pivot Podcast from Expecting Goals]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/s/double-pivot-podcasthttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URIF!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff6428f71-0c8d-4725-8ba4-f4fb68617c82_256x256.pngExpecting Goals: Double Pivot Podcast from Expecting Goalshttps://www.expectinggoals.com/s/double-pivot-podcastSubstackMon, 09 Nov 2026 17:01:40 GMT<![CDATA[Introducing the Double Pivot on Expecting Goals: Our Preseason Takes on Christos Tzolis]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/introducing-the-double-pivot-on-expectinghttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/introducing-the-double-pivot-on-expectingMon, 09 Nov 2026 15:11:11 GMTI have hosted the Double Pivot Podcast along with Mike Goodman for over a decade. We are now going to be integrating the Double Pivot into Expecting Goals over the next month. This is going to involve many new features and publications, but we are starting with the most obvious first: all Double Pivot episodes are going to be available on Expecting Goal…

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]]><![CDATA[Double Pivot Preseason Takes: Johan Manzambi]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/double-pivot-preseason-takes-johanhttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/double-pivot-preseason-takes-johanMon, 09 Nov 2026 14:55:56 GMTAs we integrate the Double Pivot into Expecting Goals, I am uploading for Double Double subscribers a few of our pre-season player takes (which were previously only published on Patreon). We will be coming back around on these in a later subscriber episode to consider what we got right and what we got wrong.

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]]><![CDATA[El Clasico Pod: Real Madrid's winning tactical approach, Yan Diomande's big role]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/el-clasico-pod-real-madrids-winning-b0ehttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/el-clasico-pod-real-madrids-winning-b0eWed, 28 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTThis podcast is mostly about El Clasico. Real Madrid got a late winner, but they had been the better team for most of the match in both surprising and unsurprising ways. We break down their effective defense, the unexpected role of Yan Diomande, the way they broke Barcelona's press, and some of our concerns about Barcelona in matches where they can't turn everything into transition. There's a little bonus Valencia talk at the front and some United discussion at the back. 

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]]><![CDATA[The new rules on injuries are creating a massive hidden advantage and no one has noticed?]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-new-rules-on-injuries-are-creating-2fahttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-new-rules-on-injuries-are-creating-2faWed, 21 Oct 2026 17:00:00 GMTThe various rules that the IFAB implemented to speed up play across soccer appear to be working. The ball is in play more, there are shorter delays before restarts from throw-ins and goal kicks, and there are many fewer delays for treatment on the pitch. But that last rule, which disincentivizes treatment by forcing players who receive treatment to stay off the pitch for another minute, is creating a strange situation where teams have a massive one-minute advantage, effectively a power play. We discuss just how large this advantage is, why it's even bigger than expected, and how this could become a big story soon.

Expecting Goals blog: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/new-rules-football-injury-delays-xg-advantage

Note: some of the numbers in this podcast were scaled too high because of a clumsy miscalculation. The advantage in shots is about 20 to 3 over a match and the advantage in xG about 2.1 to 0.2. All the ratios and the overall advantage are still correct. 

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]]><![CDATA[The Premier League has a Manchester City problem and no easy route to solve it]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-premier-league-has-a-manchester-512https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-premier-league-has-a-manchester-512Tue, 13 Oct 2026 10:00:00 GMTThe Liverpool-City match threw this problem into relief. Everyone knows some kind of punishment is coming for Manchester City, and probably an enormous one. But what happens to the 2026-27 season that is now being played under the conditions that will be set in part by that punishment? We discuss the institutional features of the Premier League that put it in this predicament, the impossibility and yet the necessity of placating fans, do another round on fairness and injustice, and what we think maybe kinda sorta should happen. 

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]]><![CDATA[Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, the Ballon d'Or race, and why none of it makes sense]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/harry-kane-lamine-yamal-kylian-mbappe-d7bhttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/harry-kane-lamine-yamal-kylian-mbappe-d7bWed, 07 Oct 2026 17:00:00 GMTPeople expect that Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappe are the favorites to win the Ballon d'Or. We go into some depth on what that means: how do you win the Ballon d'Or, who votes on it, and what criteria they are encouraged to follow? We discuss what we might wish the Ballon d'Or would be and who our picks would be, and our best breakdown of a semi-coherent thought processes by which the actual Ballon d'Or will be decided. 

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]]><![CDATA[Emergency Pod: Manchester City and the 114 out of 115 charges]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/emergency-pod-manchester-city-and-114https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/emergency-pod-manchester-city-and-114Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:00:00 GMTIt is reported that the Premier League's indepedent panel has ruled that Manchester City committed 114 breaches of league rules. The Double Pivot has been covering this story for nearly a decade and we do not plan to stop. We explain under what exact legal auspices this investigation and now verdict were issued, why and how the Premier League came to a point where maximal punishments for Man City are on the table, the underlying rules and their relation to competitive fairness, the unknowable timeline of what comes next and all the ways this could still spiral further. 

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]]><![CDATA[Does the PL midtable start at third place?]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/does-the-pl-midtable-start-at-third-4d7https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/does-the-pl-midtable-start-at-third-4d7Fri, 25 Sep 2026 10:00:00 GMTWe have tables to sort and Caley has a toy model and some thoughts on regression. It is time to talk about City and Arsenal at the top of the table, why they're the best teams in the league but what concerns the early numbers reveal, and then... Brentford and Brighton. Because it does seem like the Premier League midtable starts at third. 

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]]><![CDATA[Is the Meat Wall Cooked? and other early season observations]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/is-the-meat-wall-cooked-and-other-3cdhttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/is-the-meat-wall-cooked-and-other-3cdTue, 15 Sep 2026 17:00:00 GMTWe take a look at the early season data on set pieces and whether things feel different because they are different, or whether set pieces are still due for a big comeback. And then it's on to Arsenal: are they just the same? Liverpool, United and Chelsea: why aren't they good yet? And whether there's anyone in the Premier League who can take advantage of the early stumbles of some of the richest clubs. 

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]]><![CDATA[The Champions League Top 10]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-champions-league-top-10-30ahttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-champions-league-top-10-30aWed, 09 Sep 2026 09:00:00 GMTWe talk briefly about some of the very best teams in the world and why Barcelona and Real Madrid are currently rated about equally with Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich, why City look one step back, and then we work through the more complicated questions at the back of the top 10: Liverpool or Inter Milan? United or Como, Roma, Atletico, or Dortmund?

Plus a little bit on why the draw did not benefit the Premier League this season. 

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]]><![CDATA[Transfer Roundup Part I: City's Midfield Rebuild, Bruno at Arsenal]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/transfer-roundup-part-i-citys-midfield-563https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/transfer-roundup-part-i-citys-midfield-563Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:00:00 GMTManchester City spent an enormous amount of money on three midfielders. We have already sufficiently raved about Elliot Anderson, but we are nonplussed about Enzo Fernandez, an excellent player whose usage has been notably odd over time and who might not be a 100 million pound player unless that changes. Ayyoub Bouaddi as a signing for the future. And we rave about Bruno Guimaraes at Arsenal. Also this is secretly a podcast about Nicolo Barella. 

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]]><![CDATA[Xabi Alonso's Chelsea Might Be Crazy]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/xabi-alonsos-chelsea-might-be-crazy-524https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/xabi-alonsos-chelsea-might-be-crazy-524Tue, 01 Sep 2026 21:00:00 GMTTwo exceptionally strange opening matches for Chelsea, two back and forth high scoring matches where Chelsea mostly conceded possession with a lead, but both deserved wins, and both featuring a new thing under the sun in a "box and one" buildup structure. We walk through what we've seen so far, whether it is anything or not, how it fits within Xabi Alonso's career and ideas, and talk about how Morgan Rogers' new role may work and whether there was ever room for Enzo Fernandez here. 

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]]><![CDATA[Premier League Week One: Spreadsheets vs Eye Test]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/premier-league-week-one-spreadsheets-e86https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/premier-league-week-one-spreadsheets-e86Thu, 27 Aug 2026 21:00:00 GMTCaley didn't watch the games because he was off the grid. Goodman managed to watch despite being in the middle of a move. But as befits the whole deal of this podcast, it isn't so much about how these two methods disagree as piecing together the stories of the matches from the data and the eye test. Talking about Hull City - Manchester United, Manchester City - Bournemouth, Newcastle - Liverpool, Brentford - Tottenham, Fulham - Chelsea and Everton - Palace. 

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]]><![CDATA[Premier League Season Preview Draft: Part I]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/premier-league-season-preview-draft-ef8https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/premier-league-season-preview-draft-ef8Mon, 17 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMTThe Double Pivot Premier League season preview draft is back. We draft our top ten. All the big teams are here. Caley cheated and built a toy model and it has some unexpected picks. We discuss why few of these teams have overwhelmed us this summer but we expect a highly competitive top of the table in 26-27. 

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]]><![CDATA[Premier League Dominance? Private Equity In Europe? The Uncertain New Football Economy]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/premier-league-dominance-private-ff1https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/premier-league-dominance-private-ff1Fri, 14 Aug 2026 14:00:00 GMTWhy have so many of the top signings this summer been within the Premier League? Why does the Premier League keep winning the Europa and Conference Leagues? The reason is simply that the Premier League has more money and the reason for that is the massive (and reasonably equitably-split) Premier League television contract. We talk through what has changed and when it changed, and how this connects to the increasing trend of private equity ownership, and what might be next for the football economy.

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]]><![CDATA[Infantin-Out? The FIFA private equity scandal and what comes next]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/infantin-out-the-fifa-private-equity-d6chttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/infantin-out-the-fifa-private-equity-d6cTue, 04 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMTHuge FIFA news post World Cup as Gianni Infantino attempted to sell off shares in the World Cup in a very dubious deal, saw it collapse amid stern resistance from UEFA, and is suddenly facing a potential vote of no confidence. Is it possible reform is actually coming to FIFA? What does UEFA actually want? What would a new majority coalition look like? We go into the history of Havelange's and Blatter's FIFA, the ways that FIFA has always blended cutthroat capitalism and old-school corruption, the long-running FIFA-UEFA cold war, and the wholly unclear current state of play among the FAs.

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]]><![CDATA[Yan Diomande and Real Madrid, and Why the Transfer Market Seems Clogged]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/yan-diomande-and-real-madrid-and-7d9https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/yan-diomande-and-real-madrid-and-7d9Fri, 31 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMTAll the big attacking signings are delayed, and we have a charming metaphor to describe it. What would it mean if Real Madrid finalize the Yan Diomande signing, where will he fit in their system, who will he displace, and will this finally get the transfer market moving again? Plus a little bit on Bradley Barcola. 

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]]><![CDATA[World Cup Final Thoughts, or Spain: Pretty Good Team]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-final-thoughts-or-spain-fd8https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-final-thoughts-or-spain-fd8Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:00:00 GMTOne more proper World Cup podcast before it's gone. We break down how Spain dominated this match front to the back, the seven minutes where they didn't and how that brief run by Argentina explains what happened in the rest of the match, how often even a great performance like this goes unrewarded, Pedri's game, and more. 

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]]><![CDATA[World Cup Semifinals: How Spain Won It, Did England Blow It?]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-semifinals-how-spain-won-67ahttps://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-semifinals-how-spain-won-67aFri, 17 Jul 2026 09:00:00 GMTThe World Cup semifinals are complete and it's PADDLIN' 2, Our lyin' eyes 0. How Spain controlled the match tactically (and got a little lucky with a penalty), how if at all this makes us reconsider this France side, and then on to Argentina-England. Argentina-England. Hoo boy. The first 60 and final 40 minutes of this match were both journeys, and we break it all down, and ask where we would pinpoint England's and Tuchel's key errors. 

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]]><![CDATA[World Cup Semifinals Preview: France-Spain]]>https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-semifinals-preview-france-d80https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-semifinals-preview-france-d80Sun, 12 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMTThe two best teams at this World Cup -- certainly the two teams that have played the best soccer at this World Cup -- square off. We're worried it's going to be pretty bad. 

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